10/08/2021
Beware the C.L.A.W.
Each of us carries a sleeping tiger inside, and we can't predict when that cat will wake, stretch, and sharpen its claws. ...
Holly Robinson Pete
Dear grandchildren,
Let’s gaze deep into the future, which is only moments away.
I am writing this letter to try give you some insights to adjust your internal compass and guide you from where you are towards the direction you plan to go.
What does your future look like? Who can predict with absolutely certainty? Since the beginning of time, the future was/is/will be always uncertain. This is an immutable natural law. Life happens! History, often, takes unexpected turns.
As you know me, I am a probabilist - I fondly remember how you all had initial difficulty pronouncing this word. The probabilist understands with absolute conviction that the past is certain and the future is uncertain. And they stand on the narrow, impermanent bridge of the present that links past and present.
Probabalists attempt to optimise strategy by increasing the odds of dealing well with the inevitable adversities coming down the line. Probability is based on historical experiences and insights - the longer the back view, the further the front view.
As you also well know, I love to chunk information, then reconnect the pixels, to get the bigger picture like constructing jigsaw puzzles, as we used to play on rainy Sunday afternoons. The big, future picture I visualise are four interdependent themes (CLAW), and each one I will like to tease out. Probably the Big Four deal with 95% of future disruptive events. There are always black swan events!
It is my view based on a lifetime of observation that you, my grandchildren, and your grandchildren, will encounter the full headwinds of the four limbed CLAW. This is an acronym for China, Longevity, Artificial Intelligence, and the Weather. Can you sail on their tailwinds?
Allow me to explain each of the components of CLAW to scaffold your thinking.
C = China (Geopolitical battle for world dominance).
There is a titanic battle taking place between the United States and China for dominance (I would pessimistically name it World War 3). Although the first two world wars were in continental Europe, and its fringes, this third one is intercontinental between Asia and North America. The fight is not in the muddy trenches: it is economical, technological, imperialistic and social. Cybersphere is the grand theatre of the struggle.
China is autocratic, ruthless and collectivist led by a President for Life, Xi. The Chinese have a clear mandate to be the king of the castle by 2049. The USA is a liberal democracy, tolerant of mass dissension and promotes individualism. It is, however, a deeply divided nation, fragmenting by injecting steroids into their economy and dysfunctional, partisan politics. Their deficits are massive, they are slipping downhill.
The USA is the global alpha male since 1945, or so. (Before that were the British, who took the mantle from the Dutch). Primatology 101 - speak to Jane Goodall about dynamic changes in hierarchal systems!
Both, the USA and China, are massive in geographic size, productive populations, and influence (if China or the USA sneezes, the world catches a cold). Both use extraordinary powerful monetary (tax and spend) and fiscal (interest rates) policies, together with enforceable regulation, to keep their respective economies chugging along.
Grandchildren. Please understand their complex struggles within and with each other. They run deep. Be careful. There is a wonderful African saying that when elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.
(Read: Ray Dalio on the rise and fall of empires going back 500 years.)
——————-——-
L = Longevity (Portfolio careers)
Grandchildren, as I write, each of you have a fifty per cent chance of living to 100 years. Your parents are providing you warmth, food, love, clothes, security, and education as a firm foundation for your own marriages, careers and childbearing. So the probabilities (there I go again!) you reaching 100 years or more increases, perhaps to 70%. How are you going to live all these years?
My suggestion is that every ten years or so you take a substantial, sabbatical from work, and reflect deeply on four questions (think of the supply - demand dynamics of classic economics). A radical idea is to forgo annual holidays, saving the money for a six month break to find your answers.
1). What are my strengths? (Supply 1)
2). What are my motivating passions? (Supply 2)
3). What are the opportunities created by current problems in the world? (Demand)
4). How can I add value to 1). 2). and 3)? In other words, will the world pay me for my services or products? (Price point).
The worthy search is for YOUR sweet-point, where all four overlap in the middle of the Venn diagram. The sweet spot changes every two decades or so. My current sweet spot is writing. From now until my last heartbeat.
(Read: Gratton and Scott - The 100 Year Life, reviewed as a letter (11)
———-———
A = Artificial Intelligence (BigTech)
Digital Technology is the most disruptive, expansive force to test humanity, ever. The ubiquitous INTERNET is now accessible to billions of people across the globe. Soon, satellites will enable i-phone connections at any location on the entire planet: jungles, oceans, deserts, South and North Pole. Think about this for a moment. Wherever you go, there you can connect.
As I often told you - everything in life has the potential to be a blessing or a curse. So too with every aspect of the 4th Industrial Revolution, built on the labyrinthine Internet. A taste of it is the current cryptocurrency story. Can Bitcoin et al be a store of value or cybersphere based casino for gambling addicts? And artificial intelligence, the crown Prince in the age of digital tech knows no bounds, yet.
(Read. Dan Brown’s Origin)
——————
W = Weather (Volatility).
I prefer to understand climate change, global warming and carbon emissions under one broad umbrella (!): increase in the volatility in weather patterns. (Btw. I have lived my entire life in Johannesburg which has one of the finest all round weather patterns on earth. There is very little seasonal change here. But who knows how this might change?
However, it seems that there are more flash floods, droughts, heat waves, raging fires, devastating hurricanes and heavier snowfalls than in previous decades. But there are still many glorious days of sunshine, light breezes, and soft, soaking rain. How you deal with weather volatility will require creative thinking, design and implementation. My guess many of your career choices will be in this planet saving project.
(Read. Bill Gates - How to avoid a climate disaster)
———————-
Grandchildren, remember my favourite memes: Less is more, slow is fast.
Make the most of your lives. Work out your values guided by historical wisdom. Build moral fibre. Fix the dents in the world. Lifelong work and learning is the new normal.
Grandchildren: You live in interesting times where you, and all the other grandchildren of our beautiful natural world, can make a difference and be your best versions, if you really want to.
Ps. I have planted indigenous trees in the garden and on the pavement of our home on 11 SummerWay. Check them out. Each tree planting is symbolic of faith in the future, that we all are unique yet interconnected. Nurture them. Grow your own.
Let’s all have dinner together sometime.
All the very best,
”Doc”
(C) Dr Jonathan D Moch
Psychiatrist, writer.
Website
www.jdmoch.com
Core Professional Interest
Cognitive-Behavior Therapy/Techniques“Yes, You Can!”
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Overall Vision
Uplifting (ExtraOrdinary) People To Achieve The Impossible.
Links
1). China
https://www.google.co.za/amp/s/www.bloombergquint.com/amp/global-economics/ray-dalio-plots-china-rise-as-u-s-power-begins-relative-decline
2). Longevity
https://www.100yearlife.com/diagnostic/
3). Artificial Intelligence
https://g.co/kgs/7mEyPs
4). Weather
https://www.gatesnotes.com/Climate-and-energy?preview&Climate-SU=1&WT.mc_id=20210510000000_TGNICA_BG-PDM-PG-Global-SignupPage_BecomeInsider-Envirronmental_Change&WT.tsrc=BGSEM&gclid=CjwKCAjwx8iIBhBwEiwA2quaqxmPr42jiHGLiw1ok7s9Q1dneXo4Iw9GuB3acRZMTDf15PrQwF-jNhoCIOkQAvD_BwE
Oh Jonathan
I do so appreciate your incredibly well researched and well constructed guidance for your grandchildren. I find myself more educated and enlightened through the reading of your articles. My approach in steep contrast to your pragmatic one would be something along the lines of ... dear children of the future, love one another, be kind to all, don't go to sleep at night until everyone around you is warm and fed, and that includes those living without the walls of your homes, judge not, gossip not, be kind always. I guess that's why our bank accounts are also no doubt in steep contrast :)
From a good friend, Estelle.
Good morning Dr Moch
I like that word, Probabalist.
I think of all the scenarios you have painted, I fear the elements (weather) the most.
I too have always lived in Johannesburg, and at one time when I was thinking of joining my brother and sister-in-law in Melbourne, I looked up at the African Sky Blue and decided I am a child of Africa.
I probably made the right choice because I am not emigration material.
I get disorientated if I have to move my seat in shul.
Thanks for the continued interesting letters.